{"id":953,"date":"2020-06-24T11:12:36","date_gmt":"2020-06-24T11:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/?page_id=953"},"modified":"2020-06-24T17:47:11","modified_gmt":"2020-06-24T17:47:11","slug":"foresight-tendencias-globais-que-irao-moldar-o-futuro-da-sociedade-copy","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/?page_id=953","title":{"rendered":"Foresight \u2013 Tend\u00eancias Globais que ir\u00e3o moldar o Futuro da Sociedade Copy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class='hr av-1sxefd-1eee8334eeb6a9455996d01fb34ddab7 hr-default  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_one_full  avia-builder-el-first '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1mesft-d423bad63fe5a052d93d9e23cc3fafd0\">\n.flex_column.av-1mesft-d423bad63fe5a052d93d9e23cc3fafd0{\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-1mesft-d423bad63fe5a052d93d9e23cc3fafd0 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_hr  el_before_av_hr  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding  '     ><style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbqp7q1p-05bdc473f88ceca59975c54c675bae8b\">\n.avia-image-container.av-kbqp7q1p-05bdc473f88ceca59975c54c675bae8b img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-kbqp7q1p-05bdc473f88ceca59975c54c675bae8b .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-kbqp7q1p-05bdc473f88ceca59975c54c675bae8b av-styling- avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" class='wp-image-971 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-971 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Fundo_Banner_3_Foresight-1500x430.png\" alt='' title='Fundo_Banner_3_Foresight'  height=\"430\" width=\"1500\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Fundo_Banner_3_Foresight-1500x430.png 1500w, https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Fundo_Banner_3_Foresight-300x87.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div  class='hr av-1emva1-8d1879344932a9bc890b59f8f7e85927 hr-default  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_one_full  el_before_av_section  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div><div id='foresightdefinicao'  class='avia-section av-nntd-278cdc871d8ec2b78f60412bb3212ffe main_color avia-section-default avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_hr  el_before_av_section  avia-bg-style-scroll container_wrap sidebar_right'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-small alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-953'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbtfq297-220c283aee4c6761d6ac41d32e449e8c\">\n.iconbox.av-kbtfq297-220c283aee4c6761d6ac41d32e449e8c .iconbox_icon{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .iconbox.av-kbtfq297-220c283aee4c6761d6ac41d32e449e8c .iconbox_content_title{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n<\/style>\n<article  class='iconbox iconbox_left av-kbtfq297-220c283aee4c6761d6ac41d32e449e8c  avia-builder-el-5  el_before_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-first '  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class=\"iconbox_content\"><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><div class=\"iconbox_icon heading-color\" aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue84b' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello'><\/div><h3 class='iconbox_content_title '  itemprop=\"headline\" >O que \u00e9 o Foresight?<\/h3><\/header><div class='iconbox_content_container '  itemprop=\"text\" ><\/div><\/div><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><\/article>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kbqr04rz-919350a60b253ec199f99704f0f35206 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Ningu\u00e9m toma decis\u00f5es sem olhar para o passado, mas na maioria das vezes decidimos sem informa\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o futuro, sem proje\u00e7\u00f5es, sem questionar.<\/p>\n<p>O Foresight \u00e9 uma ferramenta e uma ci\u00eancia usada para adaptar estrat\u00e9gia, pol\u00edticas e\/ou implementa\u00e7\u00e3o de projetos em diferentes \u00e1reas de trabalho. \u00c9 uma forma de organizar processos de descoberta coletiva e de quebrar l\u00f3gicas entre concep\u00e7\u00e3o e implementa\u00e7\u00e3o: quando penso, estou a fazer.<\/p>\n<p>Comparando com o Forecast, que se baseia em evid\u00eancias dispon\u00edveis aos dias de hoje, o Foresight, apesar de n\u00e3o prever o futuro, encontra formas para tra\u00e7ar quais os cen\u00e1rios mais plaus\u00edveis, as disrup\u00e7\u00f5es, os primeiros sinais de mudan\u00e7a.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00e3o pretende tra\u00e7ar apenas os cen\u00e1rios mais negativos ou alarmistas, mas sim, preparar-nos para as oportunidades. Que implica\u00e7\u00f5es pol\u00edticas, que decis\u00f5es tomamos e que oportunidades estamos j\u00e1 a mapear para que possam ser aproveitadas em termos de crescimento, visibilidade e resili\u00eancia econ\u00f3mica e social.<\/p>\n<p>O Foresight pretende ajudar a criar projetos \u201c\u00e0 prova do futuro\u201d, n\u00e3o se prepara para um conjunto de possibilidades infinito, mas sim para aquelas que s\u00e3o mais prov\u00e1veis, tendo em conta o estudo de mega tend\u00eancias, baseadas em evid\u00eancias passadas e sinais de mudan\u00e7a.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbt9fumr-567443cdae708af6674cf5a64dd80d97\">\n.avia-section.av-kbt9fumr-567443cdae708af6674cf5a64dd80d97 .av-parallax .av-parallax-inner{\nbackground-repeat:no-repeat;\nbackground-image:url(https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Fundo_Banner_2.png);\nbackground-position:0% 0%;\nbackground-attachment:scroll;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id='paraqueserve'  class='avia-section av-kbt9fumr-567443cdae708af6674cf5a64dd80d97 main_color avia-section-default avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_section  el_before_av_icon_box  av-parallax-section avia-bg-style-parallax container_wrap sidebar_right'  data-section-bg-repeat='no-repeat'><div class='av-parallax' data-avia-parallax-ratio='0.3' ><div class='av-parallax-inner main_color avia-full-stretch'><\/div><\/div><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-small alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-953'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbtfq297-cb8170214974e3fea0318ad794179feb\">\n.iconbox.av-kbtfq297-cb8170214974e3fea0318ad794179feb .iconbox_icon{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .iconbox.av-kbtfq297-cb8170214974e3fea0318ad794179feb .iconbox_content_title{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n<\/style>\n<article  class='iconbox iconbox_left av-kbtfq297-cb8170214974e3fea0318ad794179feb  avia-builder-el-8  el_before_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-first '  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class=\"iconbox_content\"><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><div class=\"iconbox_icon heading-color\" aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue864' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello'><\/div><h3 class='iconbox_content_title '  itemprop=\"headline\" >Para que serve o Foresight?<\/h3><\/header><div class='iconbox_content_container '  itemprop=\"text\" ><\/div><\/div><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><\/article>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kbqr04rz-919350a60b253ec199f99704f0f35206 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Os seres humanos t\u00eam um conjunto de enviesamentos cognitivos que refor\u00e7am a import\u00e2ncia do Foresight:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>O futuro \u00e9 sempre visto como uma trajet\u00f3ria linear, mesmo sabendo-se que o presente \u00e9 t\u00e3o diferente do passado e, por isso, mesmo assim, quando projetamos o futuro, vemo-lo \u00e0 semelhan\u00e7a do presente.<\/li>\n<li>Somos otimistas por natureza, apesar de ser necess\u00e1rio olharmos para cen\u00e1rios pessimistas para que nos possamos preparar melhor para o futuro;<\/li>\n<li>Somos reativos e n\u00e3o tanto proactivos. A sociedade est\u00e1 a alterar-se de forma t\u00e3o acelerada que enquanto os projetos, estrat\u00e9gias ou pol\u00edticas est\u00e3o a ser desenvolvidas ou implementadas, s\u00e3o j\u00e1 obsoletas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Por isso, o Foresight:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ao inv\u00e9s de correr atr\u00e1s da sociedade, quer ser proactivo, controlando em vez de reagindo;<\/li>\n<li>pretende criar um espa\u00e7o seguro em torno do pensamento sobre o futuro;<\/li>\n<li>pretende trabalhar em torno de pol\u00edticas e estrat\u00e9gias preventivas, ao inv\u00e9s de pol\u00edticas e estrat\u00e9gias curativas;<\/li>\n<li>pretende diminuir o custo relacionado com a mudan\u00e7a. Prever e mudar antes, ao inv\u00e9s de ser obrigado a mudar porque o mundo entretanto mudou;<\/li>\n<li>pretende que as decis\u00f5es sejam mais resilientes e baseadas em evid\u00eancias, ao inv\u00e9s de intui\u00e7\u00f5es ou hip\u00f3teses n\u00e3o sistematizadas<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/section>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_2'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap sidebar_right'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-small alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-953'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbtfq297-b4e57b77313cb2293afa6da1d84686c2\">\n.iconbox.av-kbtfq297-b4e57b77313cb2293afa6da1d84686c2 .iconbox_icon{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .iconbox.av-kbtfq297-b4e57b77313cb2293afa6da1d84686c2 .iconbox_content_title{\ncolor:#3584a2;\n}\n<\/style>\n<article  class='iconbox iconbox_left av-kbtfq297-b4e57b77313cb2293afa6da1d84686c2  avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_section  el_before_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-first '  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class=\"iconbox_content\"><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><div class=\"iconbox_icon heading-color\" aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue855' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello'><\/div><h3 class='iconbox_content_title '  itemprop=\"headline\" >Passar \u00e0 a\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h3><\/header><div class='iconbox_content_container '  itemprop=\"text\" ><\/div><\/div><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><\/article>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kbqr04rz-919350a60b253ec199f99704f0f35206 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Sabendo o que nos dizem as mega tend\u00eancias como podemos criar estruturas mais resilientes \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a? Como podemos mapear e antecipar tudo o que possa ter impacto no nosso futuro para que possamos recomendar pol\u00edticas p\u00fablicas que fa\u00e7am mais sentido e criar pa\u00edses mais resilientes \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a, quando esta \u00e9 disruptiva e inesperada?<\/p>\n<p>Tem sido a partir destes processos de estudo, mapeamento e reflex\u00e3o que a OCDE tece recomenda\u00e7\u00f5es de pol\u00edtica p\u00fablica, mas ser\u00e1 sempre crucial a import\u00e2ncia que se d\u00e1 ao processo de decis\u00e3o, nomeadamente at\u00e9 que ponto se age sobre as recomenda\u00e7\u00f5es que s\u00e3o dadas. Instrumentos como Foresight s\u00f3 s\u00e3o verdadeiramente \u00fateis se se efetivarem em a\u00e7\u00f5es concretas, ou seja, na defini\u00e7\u00e3o de prioridades, na procura de inova\u00e7\u00e3o em termos de solu\u00e7\u00f5es, no desenho de programas a 10 e 15 anos.<\/p>\n<p>Por exemplo, a crise dos refugiados n\u00e3o foi uma surpresa no contexto da OCDE, mas \u00e9 relevante verificar que quando os primeiros sinais de alerta foram identificados, estes n\u00e3o foram lidos e devidamente retidos, n\u00e3o havendo, por isso, nenhuma a\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica apropriada, dando origem \u00e0s consequ\u00eancias que todos conhecemos.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n<div  class='hr av-lmz15-c415c34010cff0a3931ac83e82d483a8 hr-default  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_section  avia-builder-el-last '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kbt9fumr-1b05302d04b7a68f28786b741b1eab77\">\n.avia-section.av-kbt9fumr-1b05302d04b7a68f28786b741b1eab77 .av-parallax .av-parallax-inner{\nbackground-repeat:no-repeat;\nbackground-image:url(https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Fundo_Banner_2.png);\nbackground-position:0% 0%;\nbackground-attachment:scroll;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id='acao'  class='avia-section av-kbt9fumr-1b05302d04b7a68f28786b741b1eab77 main_color avia-section-default avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-13  el_after_av_hr  avia-builder-el-last  av-parallax-section avia-bg-style-parallax container_wrap sidebar_right'  data-section-bg-repeat='no-repeat'><div class='av-parallax' data-avia-parallax-ratio='0.3' ><div class='av-parallax-inner main_color avia-full-stretch'><\/div><\/div><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-small alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-953'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- close content main div --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_3'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap sidebar_right'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-small alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-953'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/953"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=953"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/953\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1011,"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/953\/revisions\/1011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/talks.akfportugal.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}